Finance - June credit growth rebounded in line with expectations
According to data released by the central bank on July 13, at the end of June, the broad money (M2) balance was 177.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%. In June, RMB loans increased by 1.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 305.4 billion yuan year-on-year; the social financing scale increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, 590.2 billion yuan less than the same period of the previous year. At the end of June, the growth rate of M2 dropped by 0.3 percentage points from the end of last month to 8.0%, a record low and lower than market expectations. The narrow money (M1) rose 0.6 percentage points to 6.6%.
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The rebound in credit growth is in line with expectations. There is still room for optimization in the structure of investment.
New loans expanded significantly in June, an increase of 305.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sub-sectors, the medium and long-term loans of the households increased by about 707.3 billion yuan, which was significantly higher than that of the previous months, which was the second highest in the year, indicating an increase in the provision of real estate mortgage loans; the enterprise sector loans increased by 981.9 billion yuan, of which The substantial expansion of bill financing contributed more new loans.
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“The pressure on off-balance sheet financing is relatively high, and the growth rate of M2 is dragged down by credit creation. However, the credit growth rebounded in line with expectations. In June, credit increased by 1.84 trillion yuan, a slight rebound of 0.1 percentage points to 12.7%. The rebound is in line with expectations, and the scale even exceeds market expectations. This shows that a series of structural drainage policies such as targeted reductions implemented by the central bank have had a certain effect.” Chen Hao, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, was accepted by the Financial Times reporter. Said in the interview.
“In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 9.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.06 trillion yuan year-on-year, much higher than the average of the past five years. From a structural point of view, on the one hand, short-term consumer loans increased by 1.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.18%. Compared with the same period of last year, the medium and long-term loans of residents increased by 2.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 27.69%, down 7.69 percentage points from the same period of last year, reflecting the effectiveness of real estate control policies. On the other hand, non-financial corporate loans increased by 5.17 trillion yuan. Yuan, accounting for 57.26%, increased compared with the same period of last year, reflecting the increasing support of credit to the real economy.” Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told the Financial Times reporter.
Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, told the Financial Times: "In the context of deleveraging and strict supervision, the overall financing environment is still tight, credit derivation capacity is weakened, and new corporate deposits and non-bank deposits are increasing year on year. It is expected that M2 will continue to maintain a single-digit low-speed growth during the year."
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In addition, Chen Wei believes that there is still room for optimization in the structure of credit investment. Data show that in June, new residential loans reached 700.4 billion yuan, while corporate loans were 953.881 billion yuan, and the proportion of residential loans remained high. Moreover, among the 70 billion yuan, 46.34 billion yuan is a medium- and long-term loan for residents, which is the second-high monthly increase in the first half of the year, and even more than the monthly increase in most months of the year of the property market regulation in the past two years. Need to continue to pay attention.
The deleveraging effect will gradually play a role. Liquidity will remain reasonably abundant.
Qi Jianhong, director of the Survey and Statistics Department of the people's Bank of China, said that since the beginning of this year, the central bank has made pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, comprehensively applied various monetary policy tools, strengthened liquidity management, and promoted the ability of financial institutions to improve the service of the real economy. At the end of June, the excess reserve ratio of financial institutions was 1.74%, 0.55 percentage points higher than the end of last month. The decline in the growth rate of social financing in June was mainly related to the gradual exertion of various aspects of strengthening supervision and de-leveraging policies, which were more prominently reflected in entrusted loans and trust loans.
“In terms of capital utilization, there were more entrusted loans and trust loans to local government financing platforms and real estate enterprises in the early stage. In the process of deleveraging, the irregular financing of these industries is decreasing. In terms of funding sources, the part of trust and trust loans The funds came from wealth management products. In the first half of the year, investment in off-balance sheet wealth management products decreased by 1.76 trillion yuan, of which, it fell by 915.6 billion yuan in June, and the source of entrusted loans and trust loans was significantly reduced.” Yan Jianhong further said.
Qi Jianhong stressed that it should be noted that the balance of RMB loans and corporate bonds increased by 12.7% and 8.7% respectively at the end of June, which partly offset the impact of the decline in entrusted loans and trust loans. In addition, the issuance of asset securitization products has accelerated, and the write-off of non-performing loans has increased. If these factors are restored, the actual loan growth will be more.
For the next monetary policy, Wen Bin said that in general, the M2 and social welfare data in the first half of the year were less than expected, mainly related to the financial contraction, the shrinking of financing outside the table, the tightening of the overall financing environment, and weak credit derivation. However, the record highs of new credits reflect the strong financing needs of the real economy in the context of the return on financing. It is expected that the central bank will comprehensively use a combination of various policy instruments to maintain ample liquidity and stable market interest rates. At the same time, it is still possible to further adopt differentiated reserves and differentiated credit policies to enhance the ability of financial institutions to serve the real economy.
Qi Jianhong also said that the central bank will implement a sound and neutral monetary policy in the future, and strengthen the pre-judgment and pre-adjustment of the situation. It is expected that liquidity will remain reasonable and sufficient in the future, and the scale of social financing will maintain a reasonable growth.
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